Near Repeat Prediction

 

IfmPt has developed precobs as an automated report and forecasting system.

 

The aim of the method is to predict temporal and spatial concentrations of near repeat crime.

 

 

 

 

Near repeats
A near repeat exists, if at least two crimes occur within a short time (e.g.72 hours) and in a restricted geographical area.

Near repeat areas
A near repeat area is a specific geographically space, where the amount of near repeats is significantly high.

Operative Circle and Tiles
The operative area, observed by forces, can be concentrated by circles and tiles. The probability of the subsequent offenses in the red tiles is at it´s highest result.

Automated Processing
The method is based on the evaluation of pre-defined filters and selection criteria for specified near repeat areas in combination with mathematical calculations related to the past and the current offense expectation values. Once configured, it can be used in the present and the past. Retrospective success rates were determined and evaluated. These success rates flow back into the process itself. Successful near repeat areas of the past are incorporated into the overall process.

Results
In the daily business operation, the method provides forecasts with areas where the probability of further offenses is significantly high. The forecasts contain maps with temporal and spatial information.

The integration of this methodology into a public authority is simple and  the training effort is low.
The forecasts can be used for operative or preventive purposes.
In previous projects IfmPt achieved a successful forecast of reoccurences of above 80%.
Targeted patrols showed significant crime reduction in the involved areas of the current projects.